death of Iran's president

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The death of Iran's president has indeed complicated the country's leadership succession plans, which were already fraught with uncertainty and potential instability. Here's an overview of the situation: 1. **Supreme Leader Succession**: The primary concern revolves around the eventual succession of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Khamenei's advanced age has prompted the Assembly of Experts to consider potential successors, but no clear frontrunner has been publicly named. The secrecy and lack of transparency in the succession planning have added to the complexity [[❞]](https://www.iranintl.com/en/202403279974) [[❞]](https://agsiw.org/khameneis-succession-dilemma-to-name-or-not-to-name-a-successor-designate/). 2. **Political Fragmentation**: Unlike the smooth transition following Ayatollah Khomeini's death in 1989, the current political landscape in Iran is more fragmented. There is no figure with the influence of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who played a crucial role in Khamenei's rise to power. This fragmentation and lack of a unifying "kingmaker" make a seamless transition less likely [[❞]](https://www.iranintl.com/en/202401143718). 3. **Influence of the IRGC**: Khamenei has heavily relied on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to maintain control. However, the rotation of commanders within the IRGC has prevented any single individual from gaining too much power, further complicating the leadership dynamics. The IRGC's dominance also means that military and security considerations will heavily influence the succession [[❞]](https://www.iranintl.com/en/202401143718). 4. **Public Discontent**: Widespread discontent and social unrest, exemplified by movements like the Mahsa protests, suggest that any transition period could be marked by significant instability. The Iranian regime's repressive measures have increased public dissatisfaction, which could erupt during a leadership vacuum [[❞]](https://www.iranintl.com/en/202401143718). 5. **Role of the Assembly of Experts**: The Assembly of Experts, responsible for selecting the next Supreme Leader, has seen reduced competition and widespread disqualification of candidates, particularly those not aligned with the current regime. This has led to criticisms of the election process and doubts about the assembly's ability to effectively manage the transition [[❞]](https://www.mei.edu/publications/moving-post-khamenei-era-irans-new-rubber-stamp-assembly-experts). Overall, the death of the president and the ongoing uncertainty around Khamenei's succession have heightened the potential for political instability in Iran. The lack of a clear successor, combined with internal and external pressures, suggests a tumultuous period ahead for the country.

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